Last edited 15 Nov 2016

High Speed 2 (HS2)

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Contents

[edit] Introduction

High Speed 2 (HS2) is a high-speed railway proposed for construction in the UK. It is currently undergoing a lengthy planning process. The plan for HS2 is to link London, Birmingham, the East Midlands, Leeds, Sheffield and Manchester. HS2 expands upon the first high-speed rail line in the country that connects London to the Channel Tunnel.

Construction is intended to be carried out in two phases, following the ‘Y’ configuration of the rail line, beginning in 2017 and reaching Birmingham by 2026, Crewe by 2027 and with an estimated completion date in 2033. 400 m long trains will travel at speeds of up to 250mph, faster than any current operating speed in Europe, with services up to 14 times an hour in each direction.

High Speed Two Ltd (HS2 Ltd) was established to develop the project by the UK government. While cost estimates have varied wildly since the project was announced, the Department for Transport has estimated that it will be £43 bn. However, a study conducted by the Institute for Economic Affairs suggested it could be closer to £80 bn.

Such staggering costs are the key reason why, despite broad mainstream political consensus on the viability and importance of HS2, it continues to be controversial with the public, and numerous activist campaigns having been established. Despite this, Parliament has approved the first two construction phases, although the final plan and route details are still to be formalised.

The government claims that Britain’s rail network is reached capacity and is becoming unfit for purpose in the 21st century. Network Rail has suggested the southern section of the West Coast Main Line (the fastest rail route between London and Birmingham) will be ‘effectively full by 2024.’

The new line will free up capacity on congested commuter routes, drive growth, help to shift the economic focus away from London and rebalance the north and the south. On the London-West Midlands section alone, the government claims that 40,000 jobs will be created.

[edit] Proposed route

The first phase of construction is for the line linking London and the West Midlands. The second phase will consist of the lines extending in a V-shape from Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds, with intermediate stations planned in the East Midlands and South Yorkshire.

Although proposals were announced of extensions to Newcastle and into Scotland, HS2 Ltd concluded that there was no business case for this.

The Department for Transport claim that the Birmingham-London journey will be reduced to 49 minutes from the current 71 minutes. The Manchester-London journey will be reduced to 68 minutes from 128 minutes.

The Birmingham-Leeds journey will be reduced to 57 minutes from 120 minutes. This, it is planned, will reduce journey times between London and Edinburgh by an hour to 3-and-a-half hours.

[edit] February 2016

In February 2016, Liverpool offered to pay £2bn towards HS2 if a 20 mile extension can be made to include the city in the network. Officials claim there is the risk that Liverpool will miss out on the benefits of their Northern counterparts, and estimate that two-thirds of the £3bn cost of extending HS2 could be covered through increased revenue in business rates and stimulated employment over several decades.

[edit] November 2016

A detailed route for the second phase of HS2’s network to the north, due to be built between 2026 and 2033, was published in November 2016.

The route will link Crewe to Manchester, with a spur out to a new station at Manchester Airport, and the West Midlands to Leeds. However, the government again delayed the final decision about whether to include a new station in, or near Sheffield.

The original proposal was for trains from Birmingham to Leeds to stop at a new station built at Meadowhall, Sheffield's out-of-town shopping centre. After complaints that this would disadvantage Sheffield, an alternative option was developed using the existing city centre station.

The government's preferred option is for the main HS2 route to run east of Sheffield but for a spur to take passengers to Sheffield city centre. The government claims that this option would cost about £1bn less and would be easier to construct. However, this would cut through a brand new housing estate near Doncaster that is currently under construction.

The government has said that a final decision will not be made until 2017.

[edit] Project timeline

The UK’s first high-speed rail line was opened in 2003, linking the 67 miles between London and the Channel Tunnel. In 2009 the Labour government established HS2 Ltd to draw up plans for a new route. Their report was published in March 2010, and the project was reexamined by the Coalition government that took office in May 2010. Both Conservatives and Liberal Democrats supported the proposals set out by the report but pushed for the line to be routed via Heathrow Airport.

In January 2012, the Secretary of State for Transport announced that HS2 would go ahead, despite a public consultation finding that 90% of respondents were opposed to the plans. The High Speed Rail (Preparation) Bill was passed and became law in November 2013.

The final HS2 Bill is undergoing scrutiny in the House of Commons and will move to the Lords later in 2016. According to The Independent in March 2016, a Government source said getting royal assent by the end of 2016, as planned, was unlikely because it was “up in the air” how long rebellious Conservative peers will try to bog down the Bill.

In his March 2016 Budget, George Osborne committed extra funding in response to the National Infrastructure Commission making the case for HS3 - proposed HS2 sections being extended to Liverpool in the west to Hull and Newcastle in the east,

[edit] Arguments for

Some of the main arguments made for the development of HS2 are as follows:

[edit] Help with bridging the north-south divide

Chancellor George Osborne has said the Y-shaped line will be "the engine for growth in the north and the Midlands". The government says it expects 70% of jobs created to be outside London, and a report by KPMG (commissioned by the government) suggested that the Midlands and the North would benefit more than the capital.

They estimate that the West Midlands will gain most in absolute terms with a rise of £1.5bn-£3.1bn in output in 2037. In percentage terms, the East Midlands will gain most - between 2.2% and 4.3% increase in output in 2037. Apart from the economics, HS2 supporters argue that the real regeneration benefit is to be found in the journey times that will be cut between cities.

[edit] Economic boost

Various forecasts have suggested that 22,000 construction jobs could be generated by HS2 in the next five years, rising to a total of 100,000 by the time the entire line is operational.

With higher productivity and greater regional competition, KPMG estimate that within five years of the line opening the UK would see an increase of 0.8% in GDP.

[edit] Environmental benefits

The government claims HS2 will transfer approximately 4.5 million journeys from the air and 9 million from the roads each year, as well as expanding space on the existing network for freight, thereby reducing the number of HGVs on the roads.

The Department for Transport (DfT) has said, "high speed rail is the most efficient way of transporting people between cities. It requires fewer stops, meaning less energy is expended on repeatedly braking and accelerating." However, opponents claim that HS2 may encourage increased commuting from Birmingham to London, and point to the fact that the trains will use 50% more energy than Eurostar trains.

[edit] West Coast Main Line at capacity by 2024

According to the DfT, in 2011 there was an average of 4,000 people standing on morning peak trains going into Euston. As such, Network Rail claims that the West Coast Main Line will be full by the mid-2020s. The problem will only be exacerbated by projections that demand is set to grow by 26% between 2011 and 2023. Demand is expected to rise by 46% between London and Manchester, and by 39% between London and Leeds.

On the idea of simply upgrading the West Coast Main Line, Lord Adonis has said: “Patching and mending a 200-year-old railway, working at capacity, is hugely expensive and disruptive. The last upgrade of the line, completed five years ago, cost £10bn. It entailed a decade of constant disruption to passengers and freight, and it delivered only a fraction of the capacity and connectivity of HS2."

HS2 is estimated to increase capacity from London to Birmingham by 143%.

[edit] Arguments against

Some of the main arguments made against the development of HS2 are as follows:

[edit] More people pulled into London

It has been suggested that evidence from France, Spain and South Korea points to capital cities sucking more wealth into the centre as a result of high-speed rail.

Opponents claim that it makes more sense to improve transport links between northern and midland cities rather than including London.

The Institute for Public Policy Research has proposed that the construction phases be reversed, so the V-shaped line linking Manchester and Leeds with Birmingham would be constructed before the London to Birmingham line, thereby giving the north a head start.

[edit] The final cost is unknown

Original estimates of HS2’s cost were £32.7bn, revised up by the government by a further £10bn. Rolling stock is expected to cost a further £7.5bn.

The DfT claims this estimate includes a large contingency fund which may not be used, although the Public Accounts select committee has expressed alarm at the fact that contingency spending accounts for a third of the total budget.

Opponents point to the London Olympics which was supposed to cost £2.4bn and ended up costing £8.77bn, as grounds for significant concern over the spiraling costs of mega-projects.

A related argument is that of the opportunity cost, in that £42bn spent on HS2 is £42bn that can’t be spent on other projects that may offer a better investment.

[edit] Disruption

Opponents argue that the demolition of homes and damage to rural England required by the proposed route is too costly and disruptive. Estimates show that more than 600 homes will be demolished and a further 340 homes cut off from their wider neighbourhood. More than half of those affected between London and Birmingham are in and around the area of Camden.

Campaigners claim that historic houses, acres of green belt land and sites of scientific interest will all be disrupted by the new lines.

[edit] High-speed is not necessary

Campaigners argue that other countries are increasingly turning their backs on high speed rail networks. Other means of technology such as video conferencing and Google’s driverless cars are heralded as being cheaper and more up-to-date means of doing business and getting around.

[edit] NAO report

In June 2016, the National Audit Office published 'Progress with preparations for High Speed 2' in which they suggested that " The unrealistic timetable set for HS2 Ltd by the Department means they are not as ready to deliver as they hoped to be at this point. The Department now needs to get the project working to a timescale that is achievable.”

Responding to the report, chief executive of HS2, Simon Kirby, said: "The role of the NAO is to challenge projects such as HS2 and through that challenge improve the way they deliver for the taxpayer. This report does this and we accept that challenge."

In August 2016, it was announced that additional properties and areas were to be covered by safeguarding regulations of the proposed HS2 route. See HS2 Phase One - safeguarding directions updated for more information.

[edit] Find out more

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[edit] External references

Comments

One wonders about the validity of this scheme when at the present time many travellers elect to use the cheaper but slower train service from the West Midlands into the capital. It is suspected that the cost of H.S.2 travel will be the deciding factor for many, this is true at the present where first class travel on the current fast trains only runs at a quarter capacity, whilst standard coaches are full, straw polls indicate cost as the main reason. Likewise the choice of slow but cheaper train service's. As stated in this article, the real advance will be to diminish the need for travel by technology innovation.

tc