The pace of heating change; BSRIA market intelligence

[edit] Electric Dreams, Boiler Realities

In the year 2024 boilers remained the main technology to provide heating on a global level. Heat pumps are now recognised as our best hope to reduce carbon emissions from homes, however for each heat pump sold last year there were three boilers sold. In 2024 the global market for residential boilers declined by approximately 2% in volume to the previous year. In the last five years there was a 4% decrease in fossil fuel boilers, a slower than anticipated decline.

According to our recently released report on world heating there are clear regional trends shaping residential boilerpreferences. In North America and Europe, the shift towards electrification (heat pumps) and away from gas is evident, likely driven by increasing environmental consciousness, supportive government policies promoting renewable energy, and advancements in electric heating technologies. However, this does not translate into significantly more sales for electricboilers, as their growth remains just under 3% in Europe. Notably, the decline in gas boiler usage in both regions is often outpacing the rise in electric boilers, suggesting that they are not seen as a replacement for gas boilers but more as a backup in bi-valent, often all electric systems.

Asia experienced an overall decrease in domestic boiler usage by 10%, due to economic factors and the adoption of alternative heating methods.

On the other hand, both North America and Europe are indeed transitioning from oil to biomass, which highlights a growing emphasis on sustainable and renewable heating options. Over the last five years in North America, biomass boilers in residential heating were up by 6%, and in Europe, by 5%. At the same time, oil boilers have declined in both regions. North America has seen a decrease of 4%, and Europe has experienced a more significant reduction of 6%.

The part of the market that heat pumps dominate is newbuild. Around 73% of the global heating market, though, is replacement market. There are just over 200 million boilers in operation; about half of those are old and inefficient non-condensing ones. The replacement segment is driven by price, ease of installation and minimum disruption during the process; boilers tick all these boxes better than heat pumps.

The commercial sector presented a varied picture across the regions. In Europe, electric boiler adoption has seen significant increase of 10%. Clearly, they are seen as a backup to heat pumps of commercial output, mostly in heat generation plantsfor heat networks. Overall, a comparison between gas boilers and commercial heat pumps or chillers shows that the commercial heating segment has a significant number of heat pumps and chillers installed, already. While both residentialand commercial heating involve a choice between price and efficiency for end-users and replacements, a key distinction is that payback is a more significant consideration in commercial settings.

While electrification is a growing trend, particularly in the residential sector of North America and Europe, the overall boilermarket is anticipated to experience a slow decline in sales over the next five years. This projected decrease is largely attributed to the increasing adoption of heat pump technology as a primary heating solution in new builds and ongoing improvements in building energy efficiency standards. However, it’s important to consider that the relative cost of running boilers versus electric heating solutions like heat pumps is not uniform across the globe. Factors such as governmentsubsidies, energy taxes, and the price ratio between gas and electricity can make boiler operation more economical in certain countries, potentially influencing the pace of transition away from traditional boilers. Furthermore, the sheer volume of existing, ageing boiler installations will necessitate replacements in the coming years, contributing to a continued, albeit declining, level of boiler sales.

As every market is unique, our comprehensive reports provide more specific and detailed information to help you understand the nuances and opportunities within individual countries and sectors. Contact us today to learn more about our in-depth market analysis reports.

This article appears on the BSRIA news and blogsite as 'Electric Dreams, Boiler Realities: The Pace of Heating Change' dated May 2025.

--BSRIA

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