Boiler markets and the green recovery

[edit] Introduction

When BSRIA published its annual heating studies in March 2020 we forecast a global domestic boiler market of 15.5 million units and a commercial boiler market of 470 thousand units for the year. In November 2020, we see sales numbers nearing 14.3 million and 450 thousand, respectively, thus, sales of well over a million units were wiped off the market by the COVID-19 pandemic.

[edit] Gauging the green recovery

Much has happened in the meantime. After a series of drastic spring lockdowns and ongoing waves of the virus, it has become clear that countries around the world are facing very tough economic conditions and uncertain futures. Green recovery programs have been launched in many to stimulate economic development while supporting the fight against climate change at the same time. Low carbon solutions for buildings are up for strong support soon, which raises the question, will there be an immediate impact on the boiler market?

[edit] Domestic market projections

In BSRIA's 2020 five-year forecast for global domestic and commercial boiler markets offer an insight, the picture is mixed. The global domestic boiler market is likely to struggle in the years to come. A recovery to pre-Covid levels is unlikely, as many significant world boiler markets show a slow but steady downwards trend.

In some countries temporary surges are expected, mostly driven by upcoming legislative curbs that trigger “rush to buy” attitudes. Continuous rise of environmental awareness can curtail such trends, although in difficult economic times, there is a limit on what can be spent on heating. However, this attitude may offer a temporary and short-lasting boost.

[edit] Commercial market projections

Commercial boiler market’s outlook is somewhat better. The global market is set for a slow growth in the years to come, and there are only a few markets where stagnation is expected. The scope for improved efficiencies within commercial boiler ranges seem to be bigger than in the domestic segment, and renewable technologies usually come as add-ons to systems - not quite replacing commercial or indeed industrial boilers yet.

The global trend is pointing towards a wobblier domestic boiler market than before the pandemic and a more stable commercial boiler one. The dynamics in particular countries can, however, be quite different.

This article originally appeared on the BSRIA website under the headline, "COVID-19 Update: Is the Green Recovery threatening the boiler markets?" It was published in November 2020.

--BSRIA

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