Last edited 07 Jan 2021

Global construction market projections from 2020 to 2030



[edit] Introduction

For the construction industry, 2020 was a better year than for many other industries according to the Global Construction 2030 report, published in January 2021.

[edit] Activity in 2020

The volume of global construction output declined by only around 2% in 2020, less than half the rate of decline in the world economy. Construction was categorised as an essential industry in most countries, enabling it to continue working during lockdowns. Also, "work at home" orders encouraged people to invest more in improvements to their own houses.

However, amongst the 90 countries included in the report, 16 had a double-digit percentage decline in their construction volumes in 2020; with Panama (-30%), Singapore (-25%) and the Philippines (-22%) suffering the most significant downturns. Only Saudi Arabia (+15%) had a double-digit percentage increase.

[edit] Future projections

Construction is likely to underperform the global economy in future years, particularly as it experiences the consequences of stretched public finances. This comes despite many countries announcing plans to increase investment in infrastructure.

As the world recovers from COVID, construction volumes are expected to increase globally by an average of 3.2% a year. Double-digit percentage increases are expected in seven countries and declines are anticipated in three countries (all of which are in Europe).

Over the longer term (2023 to 2030), the volume of construction output is projected to increase by an average of 2.3% a year globally, with annual growth rates varying between a decline in Japan (-0.5% p.a.) to increases exceeding 8% a year in Tanzania (+8.4% p.a.), Ethiopia (+8.4% p.a.) and Bangladesh (+8% p.a.).

It is estimated that the value of global construction output in US dollars (at constant exchange rates and in 2020 prices) will increase from $11.6 trillion in 2020 to around $14.8 trillion in 2030.

[edit] Rise and fall

China is expected to remain the largest construction market globally, but to decline in importance from 32% of the global total in 2020 to 29.2% in 2030. Japan's contribution to the total is anticipated to decline from 7% in 2020 to 5.4% in 2030. At this point, India is expected to overtake Japan to become the third largest construction market globally.

Indonesia could surpass France and Australia to become the sixth largest construction market in 2030. France could drop from the sixth largest market in 2020 to the eighth largest in 2030.

Change in importance of top 12 construction markets between 2020 and 2030

Around 43 million new homes will be required each year globally between 2020 and 2030, with 11 million of these being in India, 7 million in China, 2 million in Nigeria and 1.5 million in the US. Brazil, Pakistan and Indonesia are also each expected to require more than a million new homes every year.

Separate forecasts have been published for housing, non-housing and infrastructure work for 63 of the 90 countries.

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