Better prediction of overheating in new homes
A detailed study of three modern, energy-efficient flats has been carried out to improve the means of predicting indoor temperatures and the risk of overheating, when designing multi-residential buildings.
Overheating in modern homes – which are often designed with a focus on improving energy efficiency – is a growing problem and likely to be exacerbated by climate change. To counter this, it is important when designing buildings to reliably assess indoor temperatures and the potential for overheating. These are typically predicted with dynamic simulations, using Building Performance Simulation (BPS) tools.
BPS tools need accurate data on a complex range of issues in the areas of climate, site context, building fabric, building services and occupant behaviour. All of these bring high levels of uncertainty that make correctly predicting indoor temperature very difficult, and can lead to a gap between the expected and actual performance.
A BRE Trust supported PhD project has been conducted by Kostas Mourkos at Loughborough University, to improve BPS tools’ reliability when predicting overheating risks in homes in multi-residential buildings. This was achieved by studying in detail three modern energy-efficient flats located in London. The flats are representative of many high-density developments built in London in recent years.
Areas of overheating assessments that have been revealed as needing improvement by the analysis include:
- Specifying input values for parameters, such as the ventilation rates of mechanical ventilation systems.
- Providing guidance on handling the thermal interaction between communal spaces and the assessed flat.
- Examining different infiltration and exfiltration pathways.
The analysis also identified the key parameters influencing the observed gap between predicted and monitored indoor air temperature. While demonstrating how such a gap can be efficiently bridged through Bayesian calibration, this research showed that predicting overheating accurately remains challenging.
The research recommended that an overheating assessment should incorporate sources of uncertainty (such as occupant behaviour), by providing a range of values – instead of a single value – of the desired Building Performance Indicator (BPI). It should also consider using less sensitive overheating metrics.
Kostas was supervised by Prof Christina Hopfe and Dr Rob McLeod at Graz University of Technology, Dr Chris Goodier at Loughborough University, and Dr Mick Swainson at BRE. For more information contact Kostas ([email protected]) or access the paper.
[edit] Related articles on Designing Buildings Wiki
- BRE articles.
- BRE Trust.
- Building Research Establishment.
- Heat stress.
- Home Quality Mark high temperature reporting tool.
- Human comfort in buildings.
- Overheating - assessment protocol.
- Overheating in residential properties.
- Overheating.
- Preventing overheating.
- Solar gain.
- Thermal comfort.
- Thermal indices.
- Thermal pleasure in the built environment.
Featured articles and news
UK Infrastructure: A 10 Year Strategy. In brief with reactions
With the National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority (NISTA).
Ebenezer Howard: inventor of the garden city. Book review.
The Grenfell Tower fire, eight years on
A time to pause and reflect as Dubai tower block fire reported just before anniversary.
Airtightness Topic Guide BSRIA TG 27/2025
Explaining the basics of airtightness, what it is, why it's important, when it's required and how it's carried out.
Construction contract awards hit lowest point of 2025
Plummeting for second consecutive month, intensifying concerns for housing and infrastructure goals.
Understanding Mental Health in the Built Environment 2025
Examining the state of mental health in construction, shedding light on levels of stress, anxiety and depression.
The benefits of engaging with insulation manufacturers
When considering ground floor constructions.
Lighting Industry endorses Blueprint for Electrification
The Lighting Industry Association fully supports the ECA Blueprint as a timely, urgent call to action.
BSRIA Sentinel Clerk of Works Training Case Study
Strengthening expertise to enhance service delivery with integrated cutting-edge industry knowledge.
Impact report from the Supply Chain Sustainability School
Free sustainability skills, training and support delivered to thousands of UK companies to help cut carbon.
The Building Safety Forum at the Installershow 2025
With speakers confirmed for 24 June as part of Building Safety Week.
The UK’s largest air pollution campaign.
Future Homes Standard, now includes solar, but what else?
Will the new standard, due to in the Autumn, go far enough in terms of performance ?
BSRIA Briefing: Cleaner Air, Better tomorrow
A look back at issues relating to inside and outside air quality, discussed during the BSRIA briefing in 2023.
Restoring Abbotsford's hothouse
Bringing the writer Walter Scott's garden to life.
Reflections on the spending review with CIAT.
Retired firefighter cycles world to raise Grenfell funds
Leaving on 14 June 2025 Stephen will raise money for youth and schools through the Grenfell Foundation.
Key points for construction at a glance with industry reactions.