Peak oil
Contents |
[edit] Introduction
The term 'peak oil' denotes the moment in time when domestic or global oil production peaks and will forever afterwards go into decline. Peak oil is therefore the point of maximum oil production.
[edit] Predictions
One of the earliest peak oil predictions came in 1956 from American Shell Oil geologist, M. King Hubbert, who pointed out that US oil production would peak around 1970. He was later proved correct by both the National Academy of Sciences and the Energy Information Agency (EIA). Hubbert subsequently generated much concern when he predicted a global peak oil date of 1975. However, this proved to be incorrect, as global oil production rose steadily to 2015.
Ever since Hubbert, there has been much research and debate and many government studies about when peak oil will occur: the International Energy Agency (IEA) for instance, gave its peak oil prediction as 2008 (ie the peak of conventional oil production). So far, numerous predictions have all turned out to be inaccurate, as oil production has continued to grow.
[edit] New technology
Peak oil depends not only on oil reserves but also available prices and technology. One reason it has proved so difficult to predict peak oil is because it is hard to know exactly what the available oil reserves are, given there are conventional sources of production (eg crude oil) and unconventional (shale oil). Twenty years ago, for example, it would have been very difficult to factor in the oil that might have been available from fracking which has allowed some regions such as North Dakota, US, to enjoy an oil production boom.
Given the movement towards alternative energy sources, it may be more relevant to talk of peak oil in terms of demand rather than of supply. Some oil analysts have argued that peak oil will be brought about by reduced demand, driven by increasingly expensive oil. Others have predicted that oil will become so expensive that fewer will have the means to pay for it.
[edit] Related articles on Designing Buildings Wiki
Featured articles and news
Investors in People: CIOB achieves gold
Reflecting a commitment to employees and members.
Scratching beneath the surface; a guide to selection.
ECA 2024 Apprentice of the Year Award
Entries open for submission until May 31.
UK gov apprenticeship funding from April 2024
Brief summary the policy paper updated in March.
For the World Autism Awareness Month of April.
70+ experts appointed to public sector fire safety framework
The Fire Safety (FS2) Framework from LHC Procurement.
Project and programme management codes of practice
CIOB publications for built environment professionals.
The ECA Industry Awards 2024 now open !
Recognising the best in the electrotechnical industry.
Sustainable development concepts decade by decade.
The regenerative structural engineer
A call for design that will repair the natural world.
Buildings that mimic the restorative aspects found in nature.
CIAT publishes Principal Designer Competency Framework
For those considering applying for registration as a PD.
BSRIA Building Reg's guidance: The second staircase
An overview focusing on aspects which most affect the building services industry.
Design codes and pattern books
Harmonious proportions and golden sections.
Introducing or next Guest Editor Arun Baybars
Practising architect and design panel review member.
Quick summary by size, shape, test, material, use or bonding..