Last edited 12 Jan 2021

Certainty

Emissions Gap Report 2019 published by the UN Environment Programme defines uncertainty as: ‘A cognitive state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (for example a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (for example reflecting the judgement of a team of experts).’

Articles on Designing Buildings Wiki relating to types of uncertainty include:

NB Guide to developing the project business case, Better business cases: for better outcomes, published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that uncertainty: ‘Is unmeasured risk where known risks are not yet well enough understood to be estimated in terms of probability or impact and where not all risks may be identified and quantified.’

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