Certainty
Emissions Gap Report 2019 published by the UN Environment Programme defines uncertainty as: ‘A cognitive state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (for example a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (for example reflecting the judgement of a team of experts).’
Articles on Designing Buildings Wiki relating to types of uncertainty include:
NB Guide to developing the project business case, Better business cases: for better outcomes, published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that uncertainty: ‘Is unmeasured risk where known risks are not yet well enough understood to be estimated in terms of probability or impact and where not all risks may be identified and quantified.’
Anticipate, react, recover; Resilient infrastructure systems, published by the National Infrastructure Commission in May 2020, defines uncertainty as: ‘Limited and unknowable knowledge about future, past, or current events and conditions. Uncertainty includes natural variability (aleatory uncertainty), knowledge gaps (epistemic uncertainty), ambiguous meanings (semantic uncertainty), unknown unknowns (ontological uncertainty), and subjectivity.’
AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Glossary, published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines uncertainty as: ‘A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behavior. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (e.g., a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (e.g., reflecting the judgment of a team of experts)’
Cost prediction, Professional Statement, 1st edition, published in November 2020 by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), defines uncertainty as: ‘A lack of complete certainty. In uncertainty, the outcome of any event is entirely unknown, and it cannot be measured or guessed; there is no background information on the event. Uncertainty is not an unknown risk.’
[edit] Related articles on Designing Buildings
Featured articles and news
Building Safety Regulator reforms
New roles, new staff and a new fast track service pave the way for a single construction regulator.
Cooling centres and cool spaces
Managing extreme heat in cities by directing the public to places for heat stress relief and water sources.
Winter gardens: A brief history and warm variations
Extending the season with glass in different forms and terms.
Restoring Great Yarmouth's Winter Gardens
Transforming one of the least sustainable constructions imaginable.
Construction Skills Mission Board launch sector drive
Newly formed government and industry collaboration set strategy for recruiting an additional 100,000 construction workers a year.
New Architects Code comes into effect in September 2025
ARB Architects Code of Conduct and Practice available with ongoing consultation regarding guidance.
Welsh Skills Body (Medr) launches ambitious plan
The new skills body brings together funding and regulation of tertiary education and research for the devolved nation.
Paul Gandy FCIOB announced as next CIOB President
Former Tilbury Douglas CEO takes helm.
UK Infrastructure: A 10 Year Strategy. In brief with reactions
With the National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority (NISTA).
Ebenezer Howard: inventor of the garden city. Book review.
The Grenfell Tower fire, eight years on
A time to pause and reflect as Dubai tower block fire reported just before anniversary.
Airtightness Topic Guide BSRIA TG 27/2025
Explaining the basics of airtightness, what it is, why it's important, when it's required and how it's carried out.
Construction contract awards hit lowest point of 2025
Plummeting for second consecutive month, intensifying concerns for housing and infrastructure goals.
Understanding Mental Health in the Built Environment 2025
Examining the state of mental health in construction, shedding light on levels of stress, anxiety and depression.
The benefits of engaging with insulation manufacturers
When considering ground floor constructions.
Lighting Industry endorses Blueprint for Electrification
The Lighting Industry Association fully supports the ECA Blueprint as a timely, urgent call to action.
Comments
[edit] To make a comment about this article, or to suggest changes, click 'Add a comment' above. Separate your comments from any existing comments by inserting a horizontal line.