Certainty
Emissions Gap Report 2019 published by the UN Environment Programme defines uncertainty as: ‘A cognitive state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (for example a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (for example reflecting the judgement of a team of experts).’
Articles on Designing Buildings Wiki relating to types of uncertainty include:
NB Guide to developing the project business case, Better business cases: for better outcomes, published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that uncertainty: ‘Is unmeasured risk where known risks are not yet well enough understood to be estimated in terms of probability or impact and where not all risks may be identified and quantified.’
Anticipate, react, recover; Resilient infrastructure systems, published by the National Infrastructure Commission in May 2020, defines uncertainty as: ‘Limited and unknowable knowledge about future, past, or current events and conditions. Uncertainty includes natural variability (aleatory uncertainty), knowledge gaps (epistemic uncertainty), ambiguous meanings (semantic uncertainty), unknown unknowns (ontological uncertainty), and subjectivity.’
AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Glossary, published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines uncertainty as: ‘A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behavior. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (e.g., a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (e.g., reflecting the judgment of a team of experts)’
Cost prediction, Professional Statement, 1st edition, published in November 2020 by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), defines uncertainty as: ‘A lack of complete certainty. In uncertainty, the outcome of any event is entirely unknown, and it cannot be measured or guessed; there is no background information on the event. Uncertainty is not an unknown risk.’
[edit] Related articles on Designing Buildings
Featured articles and news
A transformative shift in the design, construction and management of built assets.
Apprenticeship announcement by the Prime Minister
Welcomed but with call for more actionable detail.
Heat pump announcements, what homeowners need to know
An 'ultimate guide to heat pumps' from a heating company.
Construction contract awards reach 7.1bn in February
Their highest level in seven months.
The journey to sustainability in heritage
Research is the key to better understanding.
Heritage approaches to adaptation, mitigation and loss.
Bridging the gap between policy, finance and installation.
Development on brownfield land
Definition, background, policy and the latest consultation.
With the Design Framework for Building Services.
Retrofit of Buildings, a CIOB Technical Publication
Pertinent technical issues, measures and the roles involved.
ECA joins HSE campaign to support mental health
Working Minds’ five simple steps based on risk assessment.
Mental health in the construction industry
Mental health issues in brief with related articles.
Transitional arrangements, Building Control and the BSR.
For pre-October buildings with substantial progress by April.
Why quality counts in domestic ventilation systems
From products, to systems to the installation.
Empowering the Future with CIOB Academy
Lifelong learning, upscaling, and reskilling for the built environment.
Comments
[edit] To make a comment about this article, or to suggest changes, click 'Add a comment' above. Separate your comments from any existing comments by inserting a horizontal line.