Optimism bias
The Green Book, Central Government Guidance On Appraisal And Evaluation, Published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that: ‘Optimism bias is the proven tendency for appraisers to be over-optimistic about key project parameters, including capital costs, operating costs, project duration and benefits delivery.’
Project Routemap, Setting up projects for success, Organisational Design & Development, UK Module, published by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority, defines optimism bias as: ‘The demonstrated and systematic tendency to overemphasise positive benefits and opportunities and undervalue the costs and negative risks of projects. This bias should be quantified when developing cost plans and schedules.’
Guide for Effective Benefits Management in Major Projects, published by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority in October 2017, defines optimism bias as: ‘The tendency to overestimate the probability of positive events (e.g. realisation of benefits) and underestimate the probability of negative events (e.g. risks and costs).’
[edit] Related articles on Designing Buildings Wiki
Featured articles
Check out some of the best features and news from Designing Buildings as well as key stories from around the web.
Construction's sustainability reporting revolution
Tracking upfront embodied carbon with digital tools.
ECA welcomes procurement reforms
Public spending must back British jobs and skills.
Campaigning for Edinburgh: the Cockburn Association 1875-2049
The role of the civic voice in protecting character. Book review.
CIOB photography competition is open for entries.
ECA Edmundson apprentice of the year award
Finalists announced.
Major new study exposes serious knowledge gaps.
Generating energy from internal light as well as sunshine.
ECA welcomes plans to strengthen subcontractor quality control.
Combining mid-career qualifications with experience broadens career opportunities.
Why being a mentor can help your career.
Channel 4 broadcaster to host 125th anniversary ceremony.
Listed structures on the rail network
Heritage interests and operational requirements must be balanced.