Probabilistic estimating
Cost prediction, Professional Statement, 1st edition, published in November 2020 by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), defines probabilistic estimating as: ‘An estimate using a range of numbers (e.g. three-point and five-point estimates) with associated probabilities of occurrence for each of the components or, at least, for each of the components that have substantive certainty. This approach recognises that there are uncertainties associated with each project component and so the probabilities of occurrence cover a range of possible values.’
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