Last edited 22 Dec 2020

2016 population projections

In June 2016, the latest Population Projections and accompanying Sub-National Population Projections were published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Based on 2014 figures, they indicate a UK population that, compared with the 2012 projections, is both larger and increasingly ageing.

The UK population is projected to increase by 9.7 million over the next 25 years (2014-2039) from an estimated 64.6 million in mid-2014 to 74.3 million by mid-2039.

In addition, the population is projected to continue ageing. In 2014, the average (median) age was 40.0 years, whereas by mid-2039 this is estimated to be 42.9. By that time more than one in 12 of the population is projected to be aged 80 or over.

In terms of the overall population increase, England accounts for the largest part, with the population projected to increase by 9.0 million from 2014 to 2039. This is 0.6% higher than the 2012 projection.

The areas in England that are experiencing the fastest population growth are London, the South East and the East. Assumed net migration accounts for 51% of the increase, with natural increase resulting from a higher birth than death rate accounting for the 49%.

The figures will pose increasing challenges to local authorities, all but 11 of which are projected to grow in population over the next 25 years. Local plans will be interrogated to determine the extent to which local authorities have taken the new projections into account when assessing housing need.

To read the full report, see the ONS.

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