Optimism bias - Revision history

Designing Buildings at 06:18, 5 October 2021

2021-10-05T06:18:10Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:18, 5 October 2021
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	[https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/improving-infrastructure-delivery-project-initiation-routemap Project Routemap, Setting up projects for success, Organisational Design & Development, UK Module], published by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority, defines optimism bias as: ‘The demonstrated and systematic tendency to overemphasise positive benefits and opportunities and undervalue the costs and negative risks of projects. This bias should be quantified when developing cost plans and schedules.’		[https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/improving-infrastructure-delivery-project-initiation-routemap Project Routemap, Setting up projects for success, Organisational Design & Development, UK Module], published by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority, defines optimism bias as: ‘The demonstrated and systematic tendency to overemphasise positive benefits and opportunities and undervalue the costs and negative risks of projects. This bias should be quantified when developing cost plans and schedules.’
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		+	[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/671452/Guide_for_Effective_Benefits_Management_in_Major_Projects.pdf Guide for Effective Benefits Management in Major Projects], published by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority in October 2017, defines optimism bias as: ‘The tendency to overestimate the probability of positive events (e.g. realisation of benefits) and underestimate the probability of negative events (e.g. risks and costs).’

	= Related articles on Designing Buildings Wiki =		= Related articles on Designing Buildings Wiki =
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	* Do-minimum option.		* Do-minimum option.
	* Monte Carlo analysis.		* Monte Carlo analysis.
		+	* Optimisation.
	* Procurement.		* Procurement.
	* Public procurement.		* Public procurement.

Designing Buildings at 09:02, 16 July 2021

2021-07-16T09:02:58Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:02, 16 July 2021
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	[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/685903/The_Green_Book.pdf The Green Book, Central Government Guidance On Appraisal And Evaluation], Published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that: ‘Optimism bias is the proven tendency for appraisers to be over-optimistic about key project parameters, including capital costs, operating costs, project duration and benefits delivery.’		[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/685903/The_Green_Book.pdf The Green Book, Central Government Guidance On Appraisal And Evaluation], Published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that: ‘Optimism bias is the proven tendency for appraisers to be over-optimistic about key project parameters, including capital costs, operating costs, project duration and benefits delivery.’

−	[https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/improving-infrastructure-delivery-project-initiation-routemap Project Routemap, Setting up projects for success, Organisational Design & Development, UK Module], published by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority, defines ~~Optimism~~ bias as: ‘The demonstrated and systematic tendency to overemphasise positive benefits and opportunities and undervalue the costs and negative risks of projects. This bias should be quantified when developing cost plans and schedules.’	+	[https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/improving-infrastructure-delivery-project-initiation-routemap Project Routemap, Setting up projects for success, Organisational Design & Development, UK Module], published by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority, defines optimism bias as: ‘The demonstrated and systematic tendency to overemphasise positive benefits and opportunities and undervalue the costs and negative risks of projects. This bias should be quantified when developing cost plans and schedules.’

	= Related articles on Designing Buildings Wiki =		= Related articles on Designing Buildings Wiki =

Designing Buildings at 09:01, 16 July 2021

2021-07-16T09:01:18Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:01, 16 July 2021
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	[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/685903/The_Green_Book.pdf The Green Book, Central Government Guidance On Appraisal And Evaluation], Published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that: ‘Optimism bias is the proven tendency for appraisers to be over-optimistic about key project parameters, including capital costs, operating costs, project duration and benefits delivery.’		[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/685903/The_Green_Book.pdf The Green Book, Central Government Guidance On Appraisal And Evaluation], Published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that: ‘Optimism bias is the proven tendency for appraisers to be over-optimistic about key project parameters, including capital costs, operating costs, project duration and benefits delivery.’
		+
		+	[https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/improving-infrastructure-delivery-project-initiation-routemap Project Routemap, Setting up projects for success, Organisational Design & Development, UK Module], published by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority, defines Optimism bias as: ‘The demonstrated and systematic tendency to overemphasise positive benefits and opportunities and undervalue the costs and negative risks of projects. This bias should be quantified when developing cost plans and schedules.’

	= Related articles on Designing Buildings Wiki =		= Related articles on Designing Buildings Wiki =

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[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/685903/The_Green_Book.pdf The Green Book, Central Government Guidance On Appraisal And Evaluation], Published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that: ‘Optimism bias is the proven tendency for appraisers to be over-optimistic about key project parameters, including capital costs, operating costs, project duration and benefits delivery.’

= Related articles on Designing Buildings Wiki =

* Business as usual.
* Deadweight.
* Displacement.
* Do-minimum option.
* Monte Carlo analysis.
* Procurement.
* Public procurement.
* Risk.
* Selection criteria.
* Supplier.
* Supply chain.
* Tender documents.
* Tendering.
* Value.

[[Category:DCN_Definition]] [[Category:Definitions]] [[Category:Procurement]]