https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/w/index.php?action=history&feed=atom&title=CertaintyCertainty - Revision history2026-05-19T16:33:23ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.17.4https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/w/index.php?title=Certainty&diff=307302&oldid=prevDesigning Buildings at 09:48, 12 August 20252025-08-12T09:48:16Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* Time certainty.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* Time certainty.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* [[Risk_in_building_design_and_construction#Uncertainty_and_risk|Risk]].</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* [[Risk_in_building_design_and_construction#Uncertainty_and_risk|Risk]].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[https://www.cic.org.uk/uploads/images/Competence-Framework-for-Sustainability-in-the-Built-Environment.pdf?v=1740033726 Competence frameworks for the built environment – Core criteria for sustainability competence - Code of practice , Version 3], published by the Edge for the Construction Industry Council in February 2025 defines the following types of uncertainty:</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* Deep uncertainty: A situation of deep uncertainty exists when experts or stakeholders do not know or cannot agree on: (1) appropriate conceptual models that describe relationships among key driving forces in a system; (2) the probability distributions used to represent uncertainty about key variables and parameters; and/or (3) how to weigh and value desirable alternative outcomes.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* Interpolation uncertainty: Uncertainty arising from a statistical or physical model-based interpolation of a field between available estimates to create a more spatio-temporally complete estimate.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* Sampling uncertainty: Uncertainty arising from incomplete or uneven availability of measurements in either space or time or both.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* Trend estimates uncertainty: Uncertainty arising from data fitting to a time-series with potential non-linear and autorogressive character.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>NB [https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/749086/Project_Business_Case_2018.pdf Guide to developing the project business case, Better business cases: for better outcomes], published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that uncertainty: ‘Is unmeasured risk where known risks are not yet well enough understood to be estimated in terms of probability or impact and where not all risks may be identified and quantified.’</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>NB [https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/749086/Project_Business_Case_2018.pdf Guide to developing the project business case, Better business cases: for better outcomes], published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that uncertainty: ‘Is unmeasured risk where known risks are not yet well enough understood to be estimated in terms of probability or impact and where not all risks may be identified and quantified.’</div></td></tr>
</table>Designing Buildingshttps://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/w/index.php?title=Certainty&diff=247963&oldid=prevDesigning Buildings at 07:25, 6 February 20232023-02-06T07:25:32Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Glossary], published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines uncertainty as: ‘A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behavior. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (e.g., a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (e.g., reflecting the judgment of a team of experts)’</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Glossary], published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines uncertainty as: ‘A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behavior. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (e.g., a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (e.g., reflecting the judgment of a team of experts)’</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">See also</del>: Confidence.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[https</ins>:<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">//www.rics.org/uk/upholding-professional-standards/sector-standards/construction/rics-cost-prediction-professional-statement-global-1st-edition/ Cost prediction, Professional Statement, 1st edition], published in November 2020 by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), defines uncertainty as: ‘A lack of complete certainty. In uncertainty, the outcome of any event is entirely unknown, and it cannot be measured or guessed; there is no background information on the event. Uncertainty is not an unknown risk.’</ins></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">= Related articles on Designing Buildings =</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* </ins>Confidence<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* Contingency.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* Risk in building design and construction.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* Risk management.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* Types of risk in construction projects</ins>.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[Category:DCN_Definition]] [[Category:DCN_Guidance]] [[Category:Definitions]] [[Category:Disambiguation]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[[Category:DCN_Definition]] [[Category:DCN_Guidance]] [[Category:Definitions]] [[Category:Disambiguation]]</div></td></tr>
</table>Designing Buildingshttps://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/w/index.php?title=Certainty&diff=237870&oldid=prevDesigning Buildings at 08:12, 31 August 20222022-08-31T08:12:04Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/Anticipate-React-Recover-28-May-2020.pdf Anticipate, react, recover; Resilient infrastructure systems], published by the National Infrastructure Commission in May 2020, defines uncertainty as: ‘Limited and unknowable knowledge about future, past, or current events and conditions. Uncertainty includes natural variability (aleatory uncertainty), knowledge gaps (epistemic uncertainty), ambiguous meanings (semantic uncertainty), unknown unknowns (ontological uncertainty), and subjectivity.’</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/Anticipate-React-Recover-28-May-2020.pdf Anticipate, react, recover; Resilient infrastructure systems], published by the National Infrastructure Commission in May 2020, defines uncertainty as: ‘Limited and unknowable knowledge about future, past, or current events and conditions. Uncertainty includes natural variability (aleatory uncertainty), knowledge gaps (epistemic uncertainty), ambiguous meanings (semantic uncertainty), unknown unknowns (ontological uncertainty), and subjectivity.’</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Glossary], published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines uncertainty as: ‘A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behavior. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (e.g., a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (e.g., reflecting the judgment of a team of experts)’</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>See also: Confidence.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>See also: Confidence.</div></td></tr>
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</table>Designing Buildingshttps://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/w/index.php?title=Certainty&diff=237234&oldid=prevDesigning Buildings at 07:26, 22 August 20222022-08-22T07:26:03Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/Anticipate-React-Recover-28-May-2020.pdf Anticipate, react, recover; Resilient infrastructure systems], published by the National Infrastructure Commission in May 2020, defines uncertainty as: ‘Limited and unknowable knowledge about future, past, or current events and conditions. Uncertainty includes natural variability (aleatory uncertainty), knowledge gaps (epistemic uncertainty), ambiguous meanings (semantic uncertainty), unknown unknowns (ontological uncertainty), and subjectivity.’</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>[https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/Anticipate-React-Recover-28-May-2020.pdf Anticipate, react, recover; Resilient infrastructure systems], published by the National Infrastructure Commission in May 2020, defines uncertainty as: ‘Limited and unknowable knowledge about future, past, or current events and conditions. Uncertainty includes natural variability (aleatory uncertainty), knowledge gaps (epistemic uncertainty), ambiguous meanings (semantic uncertainty), unknown unknowns (ontological uncertainty), and subjectivity.’</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">See also: Confidence.</ins></div></td></tr>
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</table>Designing Buildingshttps://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/w/index.php?title=Certainty&diff=219972&oldid=prevDesigning Buildings at 09:12, 10 December 20212021-12-10T09:12:13Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>NB [https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/749086/Project_Business_Case_2018.pdf Guide to developing the project business case, Better business cases: for better outcomes], published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that uncertainty: ‘Is unmeasured risk where known risks are not yet well enough understood to be estimated in terms of probability or impact and where not all risks may be identified and quantified.’</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>NB [https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/749086/Project_Business_Case_2018.pdf Guide to developing the project business case, Better business cases: for better outcomes], published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that uncertainty: ‘Is unmeasured risk where known risks are not yet well enough understood to be estimated in terms of probability or impact and where not all risks may be identified and quantified.’</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/Anticipate-React-Recover-28-May-2020.pdf Anticipate, react, recover; Resilient infrastructure systems], published by the National Infrastructure Commission in May 2020, defines uncertainty as: ‘Limited and unknowable knowledge about future, past, or current events and conditions. Uncertainty includes natural variability (aleatory uncertainty), knowledge gaps (epistemic uncertainty), ambiguous meanings (semantic uncertainty), unknown unknowns (ontological uncertainty), and subjectivity.’</ins></div></td></tr>
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</table>Designing Buildingshttps://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/w/index.php?title=Certainty&diff=189455&oldid=prevDesigning Buildings at 11:02, 12 January 20212021-01-12T11:02:46Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* Time certainty.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* Time certainty.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* [[Risk_in_building_design_and_construction#Uncertainty_and_risk|Risk]].</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* [[Risk_in_building_design_and_construction#Uncertainty_and_risk|Risk]].</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">NB [https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/749086/Project_Business_Case_2018.pdf Guide to developing the project business case, Better business cases: for better outcomes], published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that uncertainty: ‘Is unmeasured risk where known risks are not yet well enough understood to be estimated in terms of probability or impact and where not all risks may be identified and quantified.’</ins></div></td></tr>
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</table>Designing Buildingshttps://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/w/index.php?title=Certainty&diff=188884&oldid=prevDesigning Buildings at 08:35, 7 January 20212021-01-07T08:35:06Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Are you looking </del>for:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2019 Emissions Gap Report 2019] published by the UN Environment Programme defines uncertainty as: ‘A cognitive state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (</ins>for <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">example a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (for example reflecting the judgement of a team of experts).’</ins></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Articles on Designing Buildings Wiki relating to types of uncertainty include</ins>:</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* Cost certainty.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* Cost certainty.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* [[Risk_in_building_design_and_construction#Uncertainty_and_risk|Risk]].</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* [[Risk_in_building_design_and_construction#Uncertainty_and_risk|Risk]].</div></td></tr>
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</table>Designing Buildingshttps://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/w/index.php?title=Certainty&diff=187376&oldid=prevDesigning Buildings at 07:47, 25 December 20202020-12-25T07:47:49Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* [[Risk_in_building_design_and_construction#Uncertainty_and_risk|Risk]].</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* [[Risk_in_building_design_and_construction#Uncertainty_and_risk|Risk]].</div></td></tr>
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</table>Designing Buildingshttps://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/w/index.php?title=Certainty&diff=165205&oldid=prevDesigning Buildings at 08:38, 24 June 20202020-06-24T08:38:00Z<p></p>
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</table>Designing Buildingshttps://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/w/index.php?title=Certainty&diff=145904&oldid=prevDesigning Buildings at 13:27, 24 October 20192019-10-24T13:27:17Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* Price certainty.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* Price certainty.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* Time certainty.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* Time certainty.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* Risk.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>* <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[Risk_in_building_design_and_construction#Uncertainty_and_risk|</ins>Risk<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]]</ins>.</div></td></tr>
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